First time Yellow Fin Tuna Panama

Discussion in 'Jigging and Popping' started by Tommis519, Jan 27, 2020.

  1. HungryJack

    HungryJack Member

    Ok, sell is at 9.8
    what is your stop loss set at on the 6.33 tranche?

    Yeah,a forever hold, what is your forecast 5 years out?
  2. ballywho

    ballywho Well-Known Member

    My forecast 5-10 years out is a lot of these ol companies are going to pay me between 10 and 25% dividend given my purchase price, + a couple of hundreds %age point gain. At least that's the best case scenario.

    I think (hope ?) the cuts + demand explosion cocktail will create a very swift move up for oil when things get back to normal. Oil cuts are for 2 years, and I believe demand will actually come back very strong much sooner as the economy actually catch up on many business that could not happen during the lockdown. My lodge, for instance, will have it's most busy year next year as people who could not come this year will make it next one. I do believe most sectors of the economy are actually going to see that. Yes, I do see a V recovery, or actually a "check" recovery, second arm higher than the first... Could be recipe for an oil bubble.

    I know, it's going against what 99% of analysts and economists forecast. That's why I'm betting so much on it.

  3. ballywho

    ballywho Well-Known Member

    Need to read your explanations on options a second time once I recover from first time's headaque.

    Thanks for your proposal but I have no interest in those things. In trading, I've learned that the more I stick to very basic and simple things, wether the investment itself or the technical analysis, the better I do.
  4. ballywho

    ballywho Well-Known Member

    I think I just understood why stocks are going up HJ...

    Casinos are closed, all the players are on the market !
    HungryJack likes this.
  5. HungryJack

    HungryJack Member

    Ok, long term hold, good time to start accumulating,
    I think you get one more chance in the next 2 weeks
    to add more at special prices.

    Yes, your rate of return on dividend compared
    to cost, will be high, but, not really the proper way to look at it.
    When HAL will be higher in price, your dividend will be 2%,
    their historical average.
    So, you have to consider current value of asset, vs return/dividend.

    Example, I bought condo, 250k, kept 18 years,
    turned into 1.4mil
    the rent I was getting, less expenses,
    yield a 2% cap rate, or interest based on value.
    When I sold it couple years ago, I could
    have gotten 2% in the bank or tbills.
    Other than capital appreciation, it became
    a bad investment, because I could have purchased
    property with triple net leases that had a cap rate of 5-6% at time.
    Why I sold my "cash cow" (mortgage long paid off) and flipped
    into a larger more expensive apartment, that is slightly cash flow positive,
    but increased in value since purchased, now heading down in value.

    So, what you paid 20k for in stocks,
    will become 100k in stocks,
    but will yield you 2k a year or less in dividends.
    Which is ok for today's interest rates,
    but probably not in the future.
    As an income position, you would say your
    position would be under performing.

    You're building a growth portfolio/position that will grow,
    but I don't necessarily think it will be a great income portfolio eventually.

    While opportunity to do this oil and nat gas is now.
    I think stocks, is a year away or so for the bottom,
    where the buys of a lifetime will be. Not a month ago.
    85% probability correct, will know in a few weeks,
    although we did get above an important resistance,
    now we have to see if it acts as support.
    If so, we go to 4000 SP first, before collapsing in a big way.

    China tried turning the switch back on, and the lights didn't come on, flickering.
    Why should it happen here? If anything, China has far better GDP
    and other economic numbers than the US, and they couldn't get the
    motor started. I don't see the US as being any more special than
    China in this regard, or many other countries.
  6. HungryJack

    HungryJack Member

    Brilliant, lol
    Probably some truth to it as well.

    There is a brokerage site called Robin Hood.
    It is very popular, and with the millennials
    and retail investors. It is open source,
    so you can see what is being bought, sold, accumulated
    and dumped by the people with accounts.
    Some people incorporate this information into their trading
    strategy, momentum players.

    When TSLA started popping, the number of new people
    on that site adding TSLA at $800+ was impressive.
    Clear FOMO (fear of missing out) herd mentality at play.

    Fortunately, HungryPotter was in TSLA in the 200's
    and took a little nap on it,
    then when the retail peeps were clamoring for the stock,
    HungryPotter feed the porridge to them. :)

    Forecast from 4/29/19 ----- $745 Today
    TSLA 4-25.jpg

    Feb 19,2020 - $917

    Mar 18,2020 - $361

  7. HungryJack

    HungryJack Member

    Read an interesting study about oil consumption
    before/during/after the SARS event they had.
    Initially the oil consumption drops, but then
    at some point, even with reduced activity,
    oil consumption started to climb strongly upward.
    It was a shift from using public transportation,
    to private transportation for those who could afford to do so.
    New car purchases jumped as well.
    A new car consumes about 1000-1500 gallons of oil
    as energy and plastic parts to build.

    Probably part of the news that will fulfill the forecast
    of higher oil prices,
    which can happen,
    in a scenario with a worsening economy,
    and falling stock market.
    Usually called a really bad recession,
    or depression, with a topping of inflation
    and higher interest rates.

    Consider this:
    Net Jobs Created

    Bush (8) 2.3 mil
    Obama(8) 11.3 mil
    trump(3.5) 6.0 mil
    TOTAL +19.6 mil
    U Claims -22 mil
    Balance - 2.4 mil

    20 YEARS of job growth has evaporated
    so far, with more to come.
    We are now eating into Bill Clinton's (1993-00) job growth
    of 23 mil, -2.4 = 20.6 mil.

    We are up too 22 mil,
    for comparison,
    great recession 8.5mil
    Big difference. and more to come,
    many reports of people unable to file because
    the websites are down or malfunctioning.

    Just a reminder, lodges were "giving away"
    trips in 2008 and 09, some into 10.

    Four most dangerous words in investing:

    Its Different This Time
  8. HungryJack

    HungryJack Member

    Closed out on Friday

    last one 3.jpg

    Winning 5 Days In A Row

    This Week
    4 Perfect Games - Days
    1 Win Day - with minor loss on oil

    Team HJ -More Wins-More Manly- More Macho
    Last edited: Apr 18, 2020
  9. Boston Tangler

    Boston Tangler Site Sponsor

    Peter and I have pushed the the Panama trip to the following dates, which I know are still a bit "early" in terms of the Virus Epidemic, however the moon phase is decent and it avoids conflicting with other dates back home. Hopefully these dates will work with the travel restrictions I'm not sure, we doing the best we can to get down there if at all possible this season. Many of our guys own boats and going down in July or August is too much of a conflict with Summer plans at home.

    Secondary dates:
    Saturday June 6- Last day to Fly into Panama City
    Sunday June 7- Travel to the lodge
    Monday June 8-Friday June 12- Fishing Days
    Saturday June 13- Travel back to Panama City
    Sunday June 14- First day to fly out of Panama City

    One boat has asked to drop out, they have an older fellow who is considered high risk for the virus, leaving a few spots if the above works for anyone here at 360. Full refunds offered and refused, those fellows asked to let it ride till May 2021, the dates for which are:

    Sunday, May 16- Arrive Lodge
    Monday- Friday May 17-21 Fishing
    Saturday, May 22- Return to Panama City
    Sunday most fly home

    Attached Files:

  10. HungryJack

    HungryJack Member

    You guys are either the most optimistic or .........

    While there are reports there is a probability
    the Tokyo Olympics will not be able to held in 2121,
    next year, with spectators, because of concerns of
    inbound corona carriers.
    I would also guess, social distancing requirements
    with seating, will make it even more of a cash loser
    for them, when reduced seat sales, food/drink, etc,
    and still have the same security and labor costs.

    But, in 46 days, you're still planning to fly to Panama
    to go fishing, with no social distancing.

    PS> Sunday's in Panama are TOTAL LOCKDOWN DAYS
    don't leave your casa under penalty of large fine and jail,
    and cases are increasing in the country.

    Are you taking bets on this trip actually going?
    I would bet, let me know.

    Dashing Dan Bookmaker

    Bet $______ that trip does not depart and win $______

    Fill in the blanks :)

    Let's get some Pandemic Betting going on.
    You can take bets for either, go or no go.
    With a secondary bet, if go,
    does anybody catch corona, yes or no.

    PPS> I will start a new thread for stock stuff,
    so we can start some wagering action on this trip.
  11. lite-liner

    lite-liner troll enforcement Staff Member

  12. HungryJack

    HungryJack Member

    time stamping for my french friend, Pierre Porridge,
    will start new thread to close it out and other info

    Puff Puff Trade
    11:08 AM

    SPY @ 285.25
    [email protected] 215.50
    [email protected]

    Secret Sauce Puff Puff Trade
  13. HungryJack

    HungryJack Member

    last one.

    Shall name this one...

    Lite-Liner Puff Puff Pass Trade
    11:28 am

    BUY SMH @ 131.50
  14. ballywho

    ballywho Well-Known Member

    just sold 1/3 of CNX at 11.90, +137% in 4 weeks (after cashing 46% on that same stock 3 weeks before). Love my CNX....
    Last edited: Apr 20, 2020
  15. ballywho

    ballywho Well-Known Member

    would not like to be a bear in the market when they gonna announce a cure... Trying to stay 100% invested long to not miss out D-day...
  16. ballywho

    ballywho Well-Known Member

    cuts in investments, drillings, oil production gonna create a fantastic bubble on oil and natural gas stocks when the demand comes back...
    HungryJack likes this.
  17. HungryJack

    HungryJack Member

    IMG_20200411_155639 (1).jpg
    That's right, a Banana tree in NY/NJ.
    HJ grows his own Banana's so he must be nuts:)

    Headed down to the farm on Sunday to prune my fig trees.
    Forgot my pruners, so stopped at Lowes to get another pair.
    Note the brand name :eek:

    Needed some rubber bands to bundle up some of the fig cuttings,
    and asked one of the amigo's to get me some.
    He found a package of 20+ year old ones on a shelf,
    amazingly they still worked and didn't dry out.
    Note the name of the city where they were produced :eek:

    PS> HJ has his own Lemon and Lime trees also :)
  18. lite-liner

    lite-liner troll enforcement Staff Member

    That's just a banana palm on a roof top.
    no fruit frond.
    show me your bananas!!! LoL!
    they probably suck, anyway.:D
    a good 'naner tree is hard to find.
    most retail banana palms will fruit without pollenating
    but they're typically stunted and bitter.
    been down that road, without the greenhouse.
    this year I carried my peppers over thru the winter
    and it is paying off. may do a little greenhouse just for that
    next year.
    HungryJack likes this.
  19. HungryJack

    HungryJack Member

    Right now, oil companies will PAY YOU to take their oil.
    Contract traded in NEGATIVE TERRITORY today,
    minus $40.00 on May contract, first time in history.
    Its up now, overnight, to minus 20.00 a barrel.

    Going to be very interesting tomorrow for OIL.

    There is pretty much nowhere to store oil.
    The May contract expires tomorrow.

    The futures contract, as you may not know, is a deliverable contract.
    Delivery is at Cushing, Oklahoma.

    If you are short or long into expiration,
    you have to make or receive delivery at Cushing of 1,000 barrels of west texas intermediate for every contract (I won't bore you with all the mechanics on how it actually works. Retail brokerage shops will not allow their customers to take the contract into expiry so this is not something anyone here is likely to have to worry about. HOWEVER, you do have to worry about it financially because your broker will liquidate that position at their discretion).

    Anyways, there is likely to be a very big imbalance going into expiry tomorrow (ie, there will be many positions still open on peoples hands with no storage (to take delivery) or physical crude (to make delivery)).

    So, if I would be in a position to have massive inventories at Cushing (VERY STRONG HANDED), there is little incentive for me to roll my positions before expiry (unless compelled by position limits) because I can simply deliver into the contract from my storage.
    HOWEVER, IF I am long the May contract and I have no inventories in cushing, I HAVE A VERY VERY VERY BIG PROBLEM.

    Futures are a zero sums game. For every short, there is a long. So with Cushing completely full, and if I had storage and inventory at Cushing, I would be inclined to take some of my position into expiry knowing full well that there are a lot of longs without any storage at Cushing.

    So what happens in this situation?

    Massive imbalance into expiry.
    It would not shock me at all to see the May contract go to low single digits or even ZERO on a panic liquidation event (on top of the one we had overnight). Open interest is still above 130k.

    That's 130 million barrels that need to get sorted by tomorrow's Feb 21, close.

  20. ballywho

    ballywho Well-Known Member

    my portfolio (over 60 stocks) outperformed the S&P by almost 6% in just 2 days :)

    Not worried about what happened on oil today, and whatever the PAST futures contract does. The June contract will finish the week green IMHO.

    Coronavirus is pretty much over in Europe. Everything set to reopen very soon. Traders know they will never ever see oil at that price ever again in the future. Especially with the massive reduction in drilliung capacity and OPEC cuts that are forecasted to last years.

    Oil is set to bubble in the next 24 months, gonna capitalize on that as much as I can.

    In 2009 I sold a large position in a stock with 70% profits. This stock later went up to 43 times my buying price, and the latest dividend alone (yearly dividend, French stock) would have been a 50% return on my original investment. I've learned my lesson. When I see something big about to happen, I stick to the fucking plan and win big, or win nothing.

    BTW my remaining position on CNX is up 154% as of tonight... Told you it was a winner !
    Last edited: Apr 20, 2020
    HungryJack likes this.