First time Yellow Fin Tuna Panama

Discussion in 'Jigging and Popping' started by Tommis519, Jan 27, 2020.

  1. ballywho

    ballywho Well-Known Member

    today WTI oil candle could finish green. -10% as of now. Also looks like a big move up eur/usd is in the pipe. In 1.087 stop 1.760 target 1 1.114. that's a fictive trade though, I'm 100% invested as of right now. +8% on SPXL and WHR bought yesterday. Just took some OIL. I believe today is D-Day for oil on my charts. Long term bottom. We could carry on a slow slide along the line to 16 or even 15, but most likely a BIG V shape recovery starting TODAY. On DOW, if hourly candle closes above 24020, we could be headed for a +5% today. If not today, it will come soon enough. Holding on my SPXL.
    Last edited: Apr 17, 2020
  2. ballywho

    ballywho Well-Known Member

    23900 on the DOW, bear smoking machine about to get started.

  3. ballywho

    ballywho Well-Known Member

    BTW I'm up 12.5% on the PAGP trade you made so much fun about here. But it will get much better...
  4. HungryJack

    HungryJack Member

    UGAZ $30.00

    cheer green.gif

    tried posting this an hour ago.
    nat gas chart below
    expecting pullback to 1.649-1.707
    extension high here is possible as well.
    Below 1.918 and possibility still exists
    for new lower lows in price

    Last edited: Apr 17, 2020
  5. HungryJack

    HungryJack Member


    Secret Sauce system day trade

    Buy TQQQ @ $65.72
    Stop - $63.60


    Swing Account Day Trade

    Buy TQQQ @ $65.35
  6. HungryJack

    HungryJack Member

    Sauterelle, consider it condition training :)
    It will make you much better.

    Ne comptez pas vos poulets avant leur eclosion
  7. ballywho

    ballywho Well-Known Member

    PAGP +11% daily
    APA + 11% daily (+63 since bought)

    long term portfolio up more than 5.5% today :)

    mes poulets se portent bien...
  8. HungryJack

    HungryJack Member

    french fans.gif
  9. HungryJack

    HungryJack Member


    SELL TLT @ $168.15
    4/17/2020 - 2:20pm

    Secret Sauce Swing trade
    Buy @ 165.10
    Sell @ 168.15
    Profit 1.85%

    Swing Trade for France
    Buy @ 164.00
    Sell @ 168.15
    Profit 2.48%

    Perfectly named trade,
    as it under performed,
    just like the French ;) :)

  10. HungryJack

    HungryJack Member

    sold swing trade longs secret sauce 5 min ago
    will update pricing later
    time stamping action
  11. ballywho

    ballywho Well-Known Member

    good news in the pipe for the oil and related stocks. Not sure what it could be, but the charts imply a really good news soon.
  12. ballywho

    ballywho Well-Known Member

    Can't even open the window, too many bears falling from the sky....

    WHR +10
    HAL +13
    VLO +15

    good day for me :)

    Looks like a lot more upside short term.... looks like something is going to move oil stocks and oil price big time....

    Yours truly,

    Harry Potter
    HungryJack likes this.
  13. HungryJack

    HungryJack Member

    Swing Account Day Trade
    SELL TQQQ @ 66.35

    Buy @ 65.35
    Sell @ 66.35
    Profit - 1.53 %

    Secret Sauce System Day Trade
    Sell TQQQ @ 66.35

    @ 3:45

    Buy @ 65.72
    Sell @ 66.35
    Profit - 0.96%

    This trade might have suffered
    from exposure to Franrona Virus being carried
    by "the Trade for France"

    Still not bad to earn more in "interest"
    in one day, then that money would have
    sitting in the bank for 2+ years.
  14. HungryJack

    HungryJack Member

    not sure what chart you are forecasting this from, WTI?
    oil related stocks?

    If from WTI, contract rolls over on monday,
    that will cause price spike oi potentially,
    but not move something like USO.

    I see $15.20 on oil before we
    see higher.
  15. HungryJack

    HungryJack Member

    "If oil does not move up sufficiently in
    the next 2 days,
    this contract will expire worthless,
    and I will lose $21,000
    It is an all or nothing style wager"

    MINUS $21,000 on my oily lottery ticket

  16. ballywho

    ballywho Well-Known Member

    Yes, WTI charts coupled with EUR/USD, or relative strength of the USD, which is so important to oil price, and to a lesser extent coupled with the oil stocks charts which have some correlation wth oil price.

    My long term (monthly and weekly) low and reversal point was 18.xx We already did a very small excess intrady, not really relevant - close levels are eveything in my system. We could do an excess to your levels without invalidating my scenario, quite often a long established trend end with an excess, they only make the next move bigger and faster. Nothing I like better to trade a reversal than a bearish trend doing an excess under a support/canal. Don't really care the excat bottom, have a long term vision, I'm just happy I could position at 18.xx (still have some ETF bought at 20.9 but not worried and they have no leverage so can keep for a while).

    Could take some days or even weeks to unfold, but I reckon it's going to be quick given USD and stocks correlation.

    As always, could be totally wrong, but it's a configuration I REALLY like. Even the fundamentals/news feed/sentiment/possible newsflow/etc seems to support the scenario with sentiment on oil at an all-time low and pretty much every possible bad news already priced, leaving pretty much only room for good news or well interpreted ones.

    Almost too perfect to be true, almost too obvious would be the only thing that worries me....
    Last edited: Apr 17, 2020
  17. ballywho

    ballywho Well-Known Member

    I expect more good news generally speaking. Market seems to anticipate something good. Maybe further good news on possible cure, or further OPEC deals, or Trump pulling a rabbit out of a hat, who knows... Likely something good comes out this weekend...
  18. ballywho

    ballywho Well-Known Member

    I've never, ever touched at options. Don't even understand how they work. Generally speaking, too much leverage kills my mental and ability to remain cold-thinking. I quit forex for that reason, altthough I'm aware the only thing needed to reduce leverage is bet less.

    How much would you win if, say, oil jumps 10% on monday ?
  19. ballywho

    ballywho Well-Known Member


    my little reinforcment bought at 6.33 last thursday is now up 20.5%. The bulk of my position is up 33.9%. Will take profits at 9.8 (if we ever see it) on all stocks bought at 6.33. Keeping the rest forever...
  20. HungryJack

    HungryJack Member

    On my oil lottery ticket?
    Oil can jump 10% or 100% on monday,
    it would yield me nothing

    My option expired today,
    meaning my right to purchase those shares is gone.
    So, I control nothing.
    It is a booked loss of $21,000 total loss.

    If oil had moved 10/15% it would have made me 20-25k profit
    if it moved 25% would have been 60-70k in profit.
    It is a leverage bet for the most part.
    Can be used to hedge a larger position with smaller
    amount of money, like an insurance policy.

    It was a lottery ticket because of its
    short duration, 2 days.
    If you notice, I have listed other options I purchased
    that expire in May and October of this year.
    So even though I am losing on them now,
    if oil bounces before may or october,
    those will potentially go up in price and become profitable again.
    Lottery ticket because of high risk, and relative to my portfolio,
    a couple of scratch off in value.
    Was trying to add to the show I was putting on this week :)

    Can also use an option to trade a long term position
    you hold, and might not want to sell because of tax ramifications.
    You think its going to fall in price, want to sell, don't want to pay tax
    or increase your tax rate on the rest of your income.
    You buy a PUT, and as the price of the stock falls,
    your put goes up in value, you sell put to capitalize on the falling price
    without creating tax situation of selling your long term holding.
    You can buy options out to 2 years or more on some stocks, called LEAPS.

    Another use for options is to SELL THE OPTIONS YOURSELF.
    80% of all options purchased, expire unused,
    just like mine. That means the person who bought it, me,
    lost, and the person who "wrote the option" sold it to me,
    made money.

    A strategy that some long term stock owner employ is to
    sell COVERED options.
    Example, you own lots of AAPL for years, long term hold.
    You think AAPL is going down in price for the next 6 months.
    Don't want to sell stock, tax issue.

    So, you sell COVERED CALLS.
    You are going to give somebody the RIGHT,
    but NOT THE OBLIGATION to buy your AAPL

    shares at a specific price, until a specific day in the
    For that, you will receive a certain amount of money
    in return for each share. Each contract is 100 shares.
    The further away from the current price you make the option,
    the less you get per share, called strike price.
    The more time you give on the contract, the more you get paid.

    If you want to give me a couple of stocks,
    and which direction they are headed,
    I can give you an idea of how much you would
    get paid for giving somebody the options on your shares.

    This technique is very powerful to generate additional revenue
    from a long term stock position on a yearly basis.
    Its not unusual to harvest 10-20% yearly or more selling covered options
    on positions you own, since you can forecast decently.

    You can also do NAKED options, where you don't even own
    the stock, more risky, more advanced, not suggested.

    Options are fairly complex with lots of underlying
    complexities. They have their uses for a stock trader.
    Personally, I would not be an options trader exclusively,
    but many are.

    Have you ever traded futures contracts on SP
    or any type of futures contracts.
    Last edited: Apr 17, 2020